France surpassed Norway in the first half of 2021 to become Europe's largest net exporter of electricity again. The value of European imports and exports in the first six months of 2021 was studied. France’s total net exports amounted to 21 TWh, most of which went to the United Kingdom (8.6 TWh) and Italy (7.2 TWh). The level of nuclear power generation in France is similar to that of previous years (except 2020), but energy exports are much higher. This is because demand has not yet returned to the level before the COVID, so with similar levels of nuclear power generation, France exports more.
The continuing trend of rising carbon (EU ETS) prices has also promoted the increase in exports. In the first six months of 2021, the carbon price rose from 32.73 Euro/tce on the first day of 2021 to 56.54 Euro/tce on the last day of June. As carbon prices rise, neighboring countries may import more energy from France due to their low-carbon energy production. In the next few months, due to rising carbon prices, France's nuclear power generation capacity may remain at the current level, so electricity exports will remain high.
Sweden became the second largest net exporter with 11.4 TWh, and Norway ranked third with 6.6 TWh. Electricity in Sweden is mainly produced by hydropower, supported by three nuclear power plants and increasing wind power generation, which hit a record high in March 2021. This fuel mix based on renewable energy and nuclear power generation enables Sweden to increase energy exports to neighboring countries.
When considering net exports as a percentage of demand, France only exported 8.7% of its energy demand. In contrast, Bosnia ranks first with 63.8% net exports, followed by Sweden (15.7%) and Bulgaria (14.7%). Italy remains the largest net importer with 19.8 TWh, 9 TWh from Switzerland and 7.3 TWh from France.
The UK is still the second largest net importer in Europe, with a net import volume of 12.3TWh in the first half of 2021. As the North Sea Channel connecting the UK and Norway is scheduled to be put into use in October 2021, the UK's energy imports may increase further. After the commercial launch date, Norway is expected to export its low-cost hydropower to the UK almost all the time. Only in rare cases will interconnectors flow in the opposite direction; they will be traded through implicit auctions in the day-ahead market.
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For example, at the end of March 2021, the UK’s day-to-day prices were lower than Norway's-which indicates that energy should have been exported from the UK to Norway. In the long run, as more and more offshore wind power is built around its coast, the UK will no longer be a net importer of electricity. State Grid predicted in its recently released future energy scenario document that by the mid-2020s, this reversal will happen soon. Editor/XuNing
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