Time is the clearest reflection. The same photovoltaic power station will show a completely different curve of fate in different development periods.

High light start

In 2009, a year engraved into the history of photovoltaics. This year, in order to accelerate the industrialization and large-scale development of domestic photovoltaic power generation, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Energy Administration jointly launched the "Golden Sun Project". A 500 MW photovoltaic power generation demonstration project. These demonstration projects can receive 50% subsidies, and even remote areas without electricity can receive subsidies as high as 70%. Stimulated by high subsidies, the scale of projects included in the "Golden Sun Demonstration Catalog" in 2010 was 272 MW, and in 2011 it was 677 MW. In 2012, this figure soared to 4.54 GW, a nearly 7-fold increase.

The numbers are exciting. However, after inspection, it was found that the Golden Sun project, which was completed on schedule and connected to the grid, accounted for less than half of all projects, and the completion of Golden Sun was not satisfactory. In March 2013, with the issuance of the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Funds for the Liquidation Golden Sun Demonstration Project", this "pre-subsidy" model ushered in the end and liquidation.

Peak moment

The end of the "Golden Sun Era" does not mean the end of photovoltaic subsidies. After July 2013, following the "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry (Guo Fa [2013] No. 24)", "Specification Conditions for the Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry", and "Notice on Promoting the Construction of Demonstration Zones for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation With the introduction of a series of supporting documents, photovoltaic development has entered another climax. Large-scale centralized power stations have risen rapidly, and distributed photovoltaics have officially stepped onto the stage.

During this period, the photovoltaic industry grabbed projects (roads), roofs, grids (630), and talents (developers, project managers, and technicians). Among them, Zhenfa New Energy, Shunfeng Optoelectronics, China Merchants New Energy, China Minsheng Investment, Jiangshan Holdings, GCL New Energy, Akcome Technology and other private enterprises are all well-known large photovoltaic power plants; Changsheng NEC, Zhongli Technology Private enterprises such as Dongxu Optoelectronics and Dongxu Optoelectronics are also very active.

With the development of many enterprises, in 2017, my country's newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity reached 53GW, and the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation nationwide reached 130GW. Among them, distributed new installed capacity exceeded 19GW, a year-on-year increase of 3.7 times.

Three major diseases

But behind the seemingly prosperous fire, the crisis has been buried. This is related to the characteristics of photovoltaic power plants.

As we all know, photovoltaic power plants are heavy assets and require long-term bank financing of 10-15 years and rely heavily on bank loans. However, the financing costs of general private enterprises are high, and bank loan interest rates generally exceed 8%, and some are even as high as 12%. Even so, they may not be able to obtain loans as they wish.

The financing cost of power station construction is high, and if it can produce more, it can also make up for the loss. Unfortunately, as the sun rises at night and sets at night, photovoltaic power generation is naturally volatile, and it has higher requirements for the grid to absorb and adjust peaks and valleys. However, due to light and cost considerations, the areas where photovoltaic power stations have concentrated in the past few years are often the northwest and other places where my country’s power consumption and peak-shaving capacity is inherently weak, coupled with the corresponding protection of local thermal power, which is a direct result That is, the abandonment rate of photovoltaic power generation remains high, and the part of the abandonment is precisely the source of the net profit of the power station.

In addition to high financing costs, insufficient power generation, and high non-technical costs, it also troubles photovoltaic power plant investors.

The cost of a photovoltaic power station refers to all costs incurred during the period starting from the project development and the end of the project life cycle. According to the nature of the cost, it can be divided into: technical cost and non-technical cost. Among them, non-technical costs mainly include handling fees, land fees (including land taxes and fees), grid connection fees, shared amortization, land rent, and the accounting period of subsidies. Among them, only the investment in the grid connection fee, the cost per watt is between 0.1-0.5 yuan/W, and large-scale power stations are often tens of millions of watts or even hundreds of millions of watts.

In terms of land costs, the expenses are also high. Due to factors such as consumption and power curtailment, photovoltaic power plants have been generally transferred to the central and eastern regions where land is relatively tight in recent years, and land rents have generally reached more than 1,000 yuan/mu. Some places even have to pay a lump sum of 10 or even 20 years of land rent, plus some land taxes and fees ranging from 2-10 yuan per square meter that need to be paid in some areas. In calculation, a 10MW power station covering an area of 300 acres will have an annual land-related expenditure of 800 million to 3 million yuan, and in 20 years it will be 16 million to 600 million yuan. The annual power generation revenue of a 10MW power station is only 6 to 8 million. These non-technical specimens will greatly reduce the income level of the power station.

Frequent sale

The three difficult problems to be solved not only directly reduce the income level and cash flow of photovoltaic power plants, but also completely shatter the strategic vision of many investment companies trying to list the assets of the power station. The arrears of photovoltaic subsidies and the introduction of the "5.31 New Deal" have become the last straw to crush the camel.

As a result, after the "5.31 New Deal", many large photovoltaic power plant owners began to sell their assets in succession and lose weight to withdraw funds. According to TüV Rheinland data, less than half a year after the 5.31 New Deal, the number, capacity, and amount of publicly-informed photovoltaic power plant asset transactions exceeded the sum of the previous three years. A total of 11 transactions were completed, totaling 1295MW, and the transaction amount was nearly 9 billion yuan. .

From 2019 to 2020, power plant transactions will become more frequent. GCL New Energy, Jiangshan Holdings, Zhenfa New Energy, Shunfeng Optoelectronics, Fuyang New Energy, Renesas Sunshine, JA Technology, Akcome Technology, Jinko Technology, Risen Energy, Trina Solar, Linyang Energy, Asia Dozens of companies, including Marton, sold photovoltaic power plants on a large scale. According to incomplete statistics, after this round of frequent transactions, nearly 90 GW of photovoltaic power plants were finally sold, and nearly 70% of them were central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises.

Although they all sell power stations, the needs of all parties are different. Take GCL New Energy, a former large photovoltaic power plant, as an example. Since the beginning of 2020, GCL New Energy has announced that it has sold approximately 1,753 MW of power plant assets, with a total recovered cash flow of approximately RMB 6.410 billion, which can reduce the company’s debt-to-asset ratio by approximately 5.6%, effectively reducing financial risks.

In addition to broken arms such as GCL New Energy, Akcome Technology, Jiangshan Holdings, Zhenfa New Energy, and Shunfeng Optoelectronics, there are also power plant investment companies that take the initiative to adjust.

On the evening of November 23, 2020, JA Tech issued an announcement stating that in order to further improve the company’s asset use efficiency, integrate and optimize the existing asset structure, it was approved by the 17th meeting of the company’s fifth board of directors and agreed to transfer the three power stations. Project company equity. According to JA Tech's preliminary calculations, this transaction is expected to increase the company's 2020 net profit by approximately 110 million yuan.

JA Solar stated that after the completion of the transaction, the company will use the recovered funds to develop new affordable power station projects, which can effectively improve the efficiency of capital use, and it is also in line with JA Solar’s long-standing development, holding and transfer of photovoltaic power plants. Business model.

In the past period of time, Jinko, Trina Solar, Risen Energy, Almaden, etc. have actively adjusted their power plant business like JA Solar.

Favored again

In fact, in the past two years, private companies have not always sought deals on how to deal with photovoltaic power plants. Some have also bought against the trend, such as Chint, Sungrow, and Longi Clean Energy. However, even these retrogrades have changed their strategies in dealing with photovoltaic power plants.

"From a purely financial point of view, private enterprises are indeed not suitable for long-term holding of power stations, but in terms of construction and operation and maintenance of power stations, private enterprises have their own unique advantages, such as better understanding of equipment and products, greater flexibility, etc. "An industry insider who did not want to be named said that although our company is still developing the photovoltaic power plant business, in terms of business strategy, we mainly use our advantages on the service side to cooperate with state-owned enterprises through equity participation or cooperation.

However, just when private companies are treating photovoltaic power plants with caution, the "dual carbon" target is proposed, making photovoltaic power plants, especially stock power plants, once again a sweet potato.

At the institutional media exchange meeting on May 19, 2021, Jinko Technology’s first anniversary of its listing, Jinko Technology’s vice president Sha Jianghai mentioned that the current photovoltaic power plant asset trading market is booming, and the demand for stock power plants from state-owned enterprises is huge, and the supply exceeds supply. Power plant transactions have become a seller's market, "in other words, there is a premium for existing PV power plant transactions."

In the opinion of a senior person of CGN New Energy, after the central enterprises take over the photovoltaic power plants, they will balance scientific management through the overall layout of funds, calculate the general ledger, and maintain stable income. Especially when the high interest rate financing of private enterprises is qualitatively exchanged, the income of the power station is definitely better than that of private enterprises. The proposal of the "3060" target will enable new energy to usher in a new round of major development in the future. Nowadays, all central enterprises are desperately "enclosing land" and M&A projects. "CGN New Energy will continue to increase investment in new energy during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and it is expected that it will not be less than 6 million kilowatts per year."

Keywords: engineering construction, engineering news

In addition to large central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises, under the stimulation of the "dual carbon" target, some private enterprises with sufficient funds are also accelerating to seize more photovoltaic power plant resources. For example, Beijing Energy International Holdings Co., Ltd. is actively promoting other batches with GCL New Energy. The sale of photovoltaic power plants, and plans to reach and implement more agreements for the sale of photovoltaic power plants in the near future. Industry insiders predict that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, photovoltaic power plant transactions are expected to increase from 2-3GW per year to 5GW.

From hot to cold, and then from cold to hot, I don’t know what kind of cloudy and sunny photovoltaic power plants, a barometer of China’s photovoltaic industry, will encounter in the future? Editor/Sang Xiaomei