As the core of the power generation system, hydropower stations will suffer the worst drought in nearly a century in 2021, and severe water shortages will trigger a power crisis. Experts pointed out that in order to prevent the crisis from further intensifying, the Brazilian government should immediately take power-saving measures to avoid forced power cuts or even outages during the spring and summer peak periods.
Brazil's "Walter Robot" energy consulting company predicts that due to scarce precipitation and insufficient water storage capacity of hydropower stations, about 30 hydropower stations in Brazil cannot fully generate electricity. As the river's water level continues to drop, the power generation of Brazil's hydropower stations will further decrease.
According to reports, Brazil's total installed renewable energy power generation capacity ranks first among South American countries, of which hydropower accounts for about 76.8% of Brazil's total renewable energy power generation capacity.
Donato da Silva, president of "Walter Robot" energy consulting company, said that when the storage capacity of a hydropower station is less than a quarter, the power generation will be reduced. Therefore, it is imperative to reduce electricity consumption during peak electricity consumption periods.
At present, Brazil is making every effort to avoid mandatory power cuts or forced outages during the peak summer power consumption.
The Brazilian government launched an initiative this month to encourage companies to produce staggered peaks and provide financial incentives. On the 26th, the government announced a power incentive program for households and small businesses. Users who meet a certain power saving standard will receive electricity bill discounts.
However, some experts believe that although the Brazilian government's call for voluntary energy saving is correct, the action is too slow.
Niveld Castro, a professor at the Faculty of Economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said that the power crisis caused by the drought had already appeared in May, and the government's policy to encourage power saving took effect only in September. Marcos Freitas, a professor of energy planning at the university, pointed out that because of high electricity prices, Brazilians have begun to save electricity, which means that there is limited room for people to further save electricity.
The former head of Brazil’s Petroleum, Natural Gas and Bioenergy Agency, David Zilbestein, believes that it is not enough to encourage electricity saving, and that the waste of electricity should be punished.
Luis Barroso, CEO of Brazil’s PSR Consulting, said that September was crucial to assessing the Brazilian power crisis. If electricity demand does not decrease by the end of September, and precipitation is still insufficient, it is necessary to implement power rationing measures from October. However, according to calculations by the PSR Consulting Company and the Brazilian National Electricity System Operator, the power limit will not exceed 5% of the power consumption, and the power limit will not last long.
In addition, the Brazilian government is still trying to increase the power generation capacity of power stations, actively looking for other forms of power generation, and trying to increase imports of electricity from Uruguay and Argentina.
The William Arhorna Thermal Power Station in southwestern Brazil held a ceremony to resume production a few days ago. The power station was shut down in 2017, and the resumption of production is aimed at alleviating the country's imminent power supply shortage. However, thermal power is expensive in Brazil. The William Arhorner thermal power station uses natural gas to generate electricity, and the cost per MWh is 1,741 reais (approximately US$335), which is three times higher than the current market price.
Industry insiders worry that increasing thermal power generation will further push up electricity prices and oppose seeking more expensive power generation methods to solve the problem of insufficient power supply.
In 2001, Brazil was forced to adopt large-scale power rationing measures due to a drought that caused a nationwide power supply shortage. Electricity curtailment measures in Brazil's southeast, northeast, and central and western regions have reduced electricity consumption per household by an average of 20%. Editor/Sang Xiaomei
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