Decentralized wind power is becoming a new growth point in the wind power industry. On September 10, 2021, at the 4th Wind Energy Development Enterprise Leaders’ Forum, Wang Dapeng, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, said that the next step will be to focus on promoting wind power in the central and southeast regions. Development, especially in the vast rural areas to implement the "Thousands of Towns and Ten Thousands of Villages" and so on.

Zheshang Securities predicts that the short-term supply of wind power to the countryside can add 50 GW of demand, and it can provide 1,000 GW of decentralized wind power potential in the long-term. Guosen Securities also estimated that the "Thousand Townships and Ten Thousand Villages Wind Control Plan" and the policy of upgrading old units are expected to promote China's "14th Five-Year Plan" period from 50GW to 60-70GW, and the growth rate from 2023 to 2025 is expected to increase from the original 10% increased to 25%.

"Wind power to the countryside + renovation of old wind farms" drives demand beyond expectations

According to the Zheshang Securities Research Report, the implementation of the "One Hundred Counties, Thousand Villages and Ten Thousand Units Project" in China. In the short term, in China’s 100 counties, the first batch of 5,000 villages will be selected, and each village will install 2 wind turbines, totaling 10,000 units. Assuming that the installed capacity is calculated based on the current bidding mainstream model power of 5MW, it is estimated that an incremental demand of 50GW can be added.

In the long run, there are 100,000 of the 690,000 administrative villages in the country. Each village finds 200 square meters on scattered land such as fields, houses in front of the village, country roads and other scattered land for the installation of two 5MW wind turbines. The country has 1,000GW. Wind power development potential.

In addition, according to the calculation of Guosen Securities, the current stock of old wind turbine assembly machines with an operating life of more than ten years in the country is about 40-50GW, and most of them are distributed in areas with excellent wind resources in the "Three Norths". With the certainty of the two policies for the renovation of old wind farms, Guosen Securities predicts that the average annual demand for wind turbines in my country during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to increase from 50GW to 60-70GW. 25%.

Interim report performance explosion + low valuation, wind power growth is emerging

According to the Wanlian Securities Research Report, taking 26 wind power sector stocks as a sample, the wind power sector achieved operating income of 120.167 billion yuan in the first half of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 18.289 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%.

Among them, the complete machine manufacturer achieved a net profit of 3.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96%; the parts segment realized a net profit of 4.821 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56%; the wind farm operation segment achieved a net profit of 10.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase An increase of 51.56%.

In addition, the current overall valuation of leading companies in the wind power sector is less than 20 times, and the valuation of core forgings and castings is about 10 times, which is lower than the valuation of the photovoltaic industry at 25-40 times. Under the background of carbon neutrality, overseas markets are not considered. The 25% compound growth rate of the wind power industry is estimated at PEG≈1, and the valuation needs to be restored to 15-20 times.

Wanlian Securities said that the performance of the wind power industry will be concentrated in 2021, and the current valuation of the superimposed industry is low. Davis, who is optimistic about the valuation of the wind power sector + performance, doubles the opportunity.

What are the subdivisions to focus on?

Zheshang Securities stated that the "Thousand Villages and Ten Thousand Villages Wind Control Plan" was officially confirmed. The development of decentralized wind power has ushered in strong policy support. It is optimistic about the two main lines-OEMs have large short-term performance flexibility; high technical barriers and a good competitive landscape. , Core components with larger market scale.

Main line 1: OEMs have great flexibility in short-term performance, and long-term growth depends on exports. 2019-2020 high-priced order confirmation revenue and the widening of the scissors gap caused by the decline in the price of onshore wind power components will increase the gross profit margin of OEMs. Optimistic about Yunda (high-priced orders will be delivered in 2021, and the domestic market share will increase rapidly), Mingyang Intelligent (high proportion of offshore wind power, European batch export).

Keywords: engineering news, engineering construction information

Main line 2: The core components are optimistic about the market size and the good competition pattern. 1) Optimistic about the domestically-made alternative bearing leader Xinqianglian; 2) Globalized and large-scale casting leader Sunyue shares; 3) Highly concentrated spindle supplier Jinlei, wind power converter manufacturer Hewang Electric, lifting equipment Supplier Zhongji United, wind power operation and maintenance service provider Rong Zhixin is updated; 4) Tower leader Tianshun Wind Energy, Daikin Heavy Industry, and blade supplier Sinoma Technology, which has a large market space and a relatively fragmented competitive landscape. Editor/Sang Xiaomei