In August, the Afghan Taliban entered the capital Kabul, marking that the change of the Afghan regime is a foregone conclusion. From September 16 to 17, the 21st meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will be held in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan. The analysis believes that due to the sudden change in the regional situation, the Afghan issue will become one of the key topics of the summit. The SCO will also hold a joint summit on Afghanistan with the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (Group Security Organization) for the first time.

This summit coincides with the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Leaders of China, Russia, and India will all participate through video connections. Afghanistan is an observer country of the SCO. Afghan leaders have participated in the SCO summit in this capacity before, but current news shows that no Taliban has attended the summit.

A number of experts on Central and South Asian affairs told reporters on the 16th that the summit is expected to discuss feasible solutions to the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, call on relevant Western countries to assume responsibilities and obligations to Afghanistan, and further urge the Taliban to cut off from terrorist organizations. Declaration of contact. However, the summit is not expected to conduct in-depth discussions or make statements on whether to recognize the legitimacy of the Taliban regime.

Wang Shida, deputy director of the South Asia Institute of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, said in an interview with reporters on the 16th that the Dushanbe summit is the first summit of the SCO leaders after Afghanistan’s “changing sky”. The leaders’ joint declaration called for a smooth political transition in Afghanistan and the establishment of an inclusive government, with particular emphasis on the complete separation of the new regime from terrorism. He also said that the meeting will most likely involve some humanitarian assistance issues, which are urgent and practical difficulties faced by the Afghan people.

Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Afghan Research Center of Lanzhou University, said that the summit may talk about the responsibilities and obligations of Western countries towards Afghanistan, and there may be related appeals and statements. However, this meeting should not involve in-depth discussions on whether to recognize the legitimacy of the Taliban regime, and it is unlikely to issue a statement on this, because it is difficult for countries within the SCO to reach an agreement on this issue. There is a big gap, and we can only seek to reach a consistent plan on some flexible issues as much as possible.

At the meeting of leaders of the member states of the Collective Security Organization held before the SCO summit, all countries agreed to take measures to strengthen the security of the southern border of the Collective Security Organization and oppose the admission of Afghan refugees and foreign military bases on the territories of countries in the region.

According to public reports from the media, the SCO summit will officially start the procedure for accepting Iran as a full member of the SCO. At present, Iran is only an observer country of the SCO. In addition, the summit may also decide whether to accept Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia as dialogue partners of the SCO.

Zhao Long, a researcher at the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, wrote in a commentary published on the 16th that as the forces of terrorism, separatism and extremism are becoming fragmented, miniaturized and networked "3.0" With the characteristics of the times, the "three forces" in Central Asia have deepened their ties and infiltrations with their adjacent regions, and the "power seizure effect" of the Taliban in Afghanistan may also form a negative demonstration, triggering "jihadist" organizations and Islamic movements in neighboring countries in Central Asia to watch and follow suit. The expansion of the SCO’s membership is conducive to the formation of a multi-party coordination and multi-dimensional linkage pattern for combating the "three forces", leading the construction of a multi-layer regional security system of "inner circle-periphery-periphery", using the "SCO-Afghanistan Liaison Group" to form An alliance of regional issues based on the security, economic and development agenda.

Wang Shida believes that there are two important advantages in resolving Afghan affairs through the SCO mechanism: First, the SCO basically covers all important regional stakeholders in the Afghan issue, and all neighboring countries of Afghanistan or full members of the SCO or observer states. Therefore, the SCO is the most extensive platform; second, with the withdrawal of the United States, the foreign policy of the new Taliban regime is expected to be more inclined to the United States and the West from before, and return to the region more. This will benefit the SCO. Play a greater role in Afghanistan.

However, he also said that the Shanghai Cooperation Mechanism also has some obvious limitations in handling the Afghan issue. First, there are differences among the SCO member states on the Afghan issue. Some countries have not only different geopolitical interests, but even sharp confrontations and conflicts. The most typical examples are India and Pakistan. Consolidate regional consensus on the Afghanistan issue. The second is that the SCO’s decision-making mechanism and execution capabilities are limited. The SCO’s decision-making requires the unanimous consent of all member states, and it does not have the same military execution power as NATO.

What is China's attitude towards solving the Afghan issue through the Shanghai Cooperation Mechanism? The South Asian regional affairs expert told reporters that China has always opposed unilateralism, pure military means, and the practice of replicating other regional models in Afghanistan regardless of actual conditions. In contrast, China supports the adoption of multilateral coordination in Afghanistan, especially through political coordination and economic means to resolve the Afghan issue. From the above two perspectives, in China’s view, the SCO mechanism clearly has a huge policy space in resolving the Afghan issue.

He analyzed that for Russia, it has more hands on the issue of Afghanistan, and the Shanghai Cooperation Administration is one of its choices. In the past few years, Russia has always supported the expansion of the SCO, including support for India, Pakistan, and the future participation of Iran in the organization. The SCO has a unique role for Russia. However, Russia seems to rely more on the mechanism of the Collective Security Organization to ensure the security of itself and the Central Asian countries, while viewing the SCO as a platform for mediation and consultation.

Vladimir Potapek, the former Special Representative of the SCO President of the Russian Federation and the former Deputy Secretary-General of the SCO, recently stated that many SCO member states have their own interests in Afghanistan and participate in the implementation of international projects, and they are closely monitoring them. The ruling of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. If the Taliban regime can ensure the safety of infrastructure construction and other production facilities, in fact, new prospects will appear in the region, namely, the implementation of the long-term vision of establishing a North-South transport corridor and the establishment of a China-Iran direct transport corridor through the Belt and Road Initiative, which will greatly Shorten the delivery time of goods.

Zhu Yongbiao told reporters that as early as 2017, the Taliban issued relevant statements stating that they would protect infrastructure projects invested by regional countries in Afghanistan, but now Afghanistan is still facing security challenges, and the Taliban has not yet been recognized by the international community. If the project is restarted, it may encounter international sanctions. Especially if it involves the participation of Iran and Pakistan, related projects are more likely to encounter backlash from the United States and Western countries, so implementation is very difficult.

However, he also said that once these projects can be implemented, it will mean the improvement of Afghanistan’s own hematopoietic capacity, and will also play a major role in the interconnection of infrastructure, energy pipelines, and power networks in Central and South Asia, which will help Improve the economic development level of the entire region. Editor/Xu Shengpeng