Macro
By 2030, renewable energy investment must triple
Seetao 2021-10-14 10:06
  • Renewable energy and bioenergy need to take a larger share of the rebound in energy investment
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On October 13, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that if the world wants to effectively respond to climate change and control the turbulent energy market, investment in renewable energy needs to triple by the end of this decade.

"The world's investment is insufficient to meet its future energy needs... The expenditures related to the transition are gradually increasing, but they are still far from being able to meet the growing demand for energy services in a sustainable manner," the International Energy Agency said. "Clear signals and directions from decision makers are crucial. If the road ahead is paved with good intentions, it will indeed be a bumpy journey," it added.

The Paris-based regulator released its annual World Energy Outlook in early 2021 to guide the UN COP26 climate change conference, which is less than a month away. Read more It called the Glasgow Conference in Scotland "the first test of whether countries are ready to submit new and more ambitious commitments under the Paris Agreement in 2015" and "a clear way to provide an accelerated global transition to clean energy." Signal' opportunity."

In recent weeks, due to oil and natural gas prices hitting multi-year highs and widespread energy shortages sweeping Asia and Europe, electricity prices have soared to record levels. As the government relaxes restrictions to contain the spread of COVID-19, demand for fossil fuels is also recovering. The International Energy Agency warned that after the pandemic, renewable energy such as solar, wind, and hydropower, as well as bioenergy, will need to take a larger share of the rebound in energy investment.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol told reporters at a virtual press conference: “We have witnessed an unsustainable economic recovery here. “We are seeing very strong growth in fossil fuels and high prices. , Hindering economic growth. "

Oil, gas and coal demand

The International Energy Agency pointed out that renewable energy will account for more than two-thirds of investment in new power generation capacity in 2021, but the substantial increase in coal and oil use has led to the second largest annual increase in carbon dioxide emissions due to climate change.

The IEA stated that a faster energy transition will better protect consumers in the future, because in its most ambitious 2050 Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, commodity price shocks will reduce household costs by 30%. In its more conservative established policy scenario (in its footsteps).

Nevertheless, to fulfill the 2015 "Paris Agreement" commitment to limit the temperature rise to as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial period, still need to achieve a huge leap. By 2020, fossil fuels, coal, natural gas, and oil will account for nearly 80% of the world's energy supply, and renewable energy will account for only 12%.

In order to keep the rise close to 1.5 degrees, IEA’s NSE forecast predicts that these fossil fuels will shrink to less than a quarter of the supply mix in the middle of this century, while renewable energy will soar to just over two-thirds.

If the world remains on the current orbit outlined in the STEPS scenario, the temperature will rise by 2.6 degrees Celsius by 2100. The IEA predicts for the first time that oil demand in all scenarios will peak. In STEPS forecasts, there will be a very slow decline in the mid-2030s, but in the NSE forecasts it will stabilize within 10 years and will further decline by nearly four points by 2050. 3. 

The International Energy Agency issued the toughest warning to date on the future of fossil fuels in a report in May. It also stated that its NZE prospects envisage a decline in demand and an increase in low-emission fuels, which will enable new oil and gas fields after 2021. Becomes unnecessary.

However, it did state the need for new oil fields in its two most conservative scenarios, and provided tips for mitigating climate impacts, such as reducing methane combustion. The International Energy Agency warns that “every data point showing the rate of energy change can be offset by another data point showing the stubborn status quo.” Today’s energy system cannot cope with these challenges; a low-emission revolution is long overdue. Editor/Xu Shengpeng


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