With the declining natural gas inventories, rising electricity bills, and unfilled fuel tanks, the unprecedented surge in natural gas prices has made Europe a difficult winter. According to data from the European Intercontinental Exchange, compared with the price of about 6 euros in mid-2020, the price of natural gas has soared more than 10 times recently, and the price has hit a record high. As energy prices have soared, so have European electricity prices. Some analysts predict that this energy crisis may spread to the world.

Energy supply involves economic and social development and people's livelihood, and there is no room for slippage. The bottom line that must be adhered to to build a new power system is to ensure safe supply. In the period of seeking to accelerate the transition to clean energy, it is more necessary to highlight the importance of safe and affordable energy supply.

The level of energy reserves in Europe has dropped to a historical low, and the soaring gas and electricity prices have triggered public protests, and many companies have announced the suspension of production due to cost pressures.

After the harsh winter of 2020 and the scorching heat of 2021, the level of European energy reserves has dropped to a historically low level. According to data from the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, at present, the European regional natural gas inventory is only 74.7% of the full-load level, which is the lowest level in more than a decade, and the winter energy reserve needs to be replenished urgently.

On October 11, 2021 local time, Gazprom's oil, natural gas and condensate gas field No. 3 integrated gas processing station, which is the resource base of the Siberian power and natural gas pipeline. At a time when European natural gas prices hit a record of a single-day fluctuation of 40%, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Gazprom could increase supply and help alleviate shortages.

The energy crisis triggered a series of chain reactions, among which the power industry was the most affected, and the soaring electricity prices caught governments and consumers by surprise.

At present, the electricity price per MWh in the UK has risen to 285 pounds, a 700% increase over the same period, setting a record since 1999. Spain's electricity prices have tripled since last December, and Germany has risen by 50%. Industry insiders warned that all European countries will work hard to deal with unprecedented power industry crises.

As the northern hemisphere is about to enter a cold winter, energy demand continues to increase. If energy prices continue to rise, tens of millions of European households may fall into "energy poverty" because they cannot afford heating costs this winter. The International Energy Agency warned that in the coming winter, Europe may face various forms of "stress tests" such as cold currents and unexpected power outages.

Energy-intensive industries cannot bear the cost pressure caused by rising energy prices. Many steel, chemical, and food processing companies have stated that rising energy prices will squeeze profits, and even announced production cuts or suspensions due to cost pressures. Several large-scale fertilizer producers in the United Kingdom announced production cuts. As the British food industry relies on carbon dioxide provided by fertilizer producers in food processing, preservation, and slaughter, British food industry officials said that if the carbon dioxide shortage problem is not resolved, the country will face food crisis.

The impact of the epidemic, unfavorable weather conditions, increased energy demand... Multiple reasons have led to Europe's "gas shortage".

Why is there a "gas shortage" in Europe? Expert analysis said that on the one hand, the economies of many countries have gradually recovered after the anti-epidemic blockade has been lifted, and the northern hemisphere has entered the autumn and winter seasons, and the demand for energy such as heating and lighting has increased; on the other hand, it has suffered less. Unfavorable weather conditions such as wind, drought, etc., this year's wind and hydroelectric power generation in Europe is far below the average level, making the already inadequate energy reserves "exacerbating the situation."

"Generally speaking, summer is the off-season for natural gas. In previous years, there is gas storage. However, due to the global high temperature weather this summer, people’s demand for refrigeration is also increasing, and weather conditions have weakened wind power. European countries have some green power. If you can’t keep up, you can only get gas and electricity. Therefore, if you use reserve gas in summer, you will inevitably need to inject gas in autumn and winter.” Luo Zuoxian, director of the research office of the Sinopec Research Institute of Economics and Technology, told reporters.

Europe's natural gas mainly depends on imports from Russia. One out of every four European households uses natural gas from Russia. Russia's own demand for natural gas is also growing, and gas sources exported to Europe are more or less affected. "Globally, the'competition' between Europe and Asia is a major feature of this year's natural gas sales field. Strong demand and no increase in output will naturally lead to an increase in prices." Luozu County said.

European climate policy itself is also pushing up European energy prices. Thermal power plants could originally switch between the use of natural gas and the use of coal, but the use of coal requires the purchase of carbon emission permits. Since the beginning of this year, under the impetus of the reform of reducing the number of carbon emission permits in Europe, the price of EU carbon emission allowances has reached a record level. The high cost of carbon emissions further contributes to natural gas prices.

The renewable energy supply system may "fail" under extreme weather, and the problem of energy storage after power generation still needs to be broken.

Luozuo County believes that "supply stability" and "sustainability" are the basic connotations of energy security. "On this basis, pursuing a higher level of energy independence and avoiding national energy supply from being restricted by others is the common policy management goal of all countries. And pursuit."

Since the spread of the epidemic, the world's consensus on developing a green and low-carbon economy has increased, and carbon neutrality has gradually become the common pursuit of all countries. Luozuo County stated that the huge impact of carbon neutrality on the energy industry is to increase the proportion of renewable energy in primary energy, and renewable energy often relies on the local area. This means that the country's dependence on extraterritorial energy has declined, thereby improving the country's energy security level from the fundamentals of supply and demand.

Europe's oil and gas resources have declined since the 1970s, and Japan and South Korea are countries that lack oil and gas resources. Due to its own lack of energy self-sufficiency, Europe has been plagued by similar incidents of Gazprom gas supply cutoffs, while Japan and South Korea have long suffered from oil and gas premiums in Asia. In order to effectively solve these problems, Europe, Japan, and South Korea have opened up diversified oil and gas supply channels on the one hand, and vigorously developed green renewable energy on the other hand, striving to protect energy supply.

However, since this year, wind power, solar power, hydropower and other renewable energy sources in the United States, Europe and Asia have not been able to fill the energy gap caused by the reduction in the use of fossil energy. Why did the highly anticipated renewable energy supply system fail under the influence of external factors such as extreme weather?

In the process of energy transition, when wind and solar power are insufficient, the power supply in the region will be easily affected. Under certain circumstances, "not being able to do anything" is a common embarrassment for renewable energy in all countries. For example, due to the drought in Yunnan this summer and insufficient hydropower, the power supply that should have been sent to Guangdong is also short. Another example is Texas at the end of last year. The extreme cold weather not only freezes the blades of power generation fans, but also freezes the water supply channels of coal-fired power companies, and also affects the pipeline network transmission of natural gas. Studies have pointed out that the current battery production capacity of battery manufacturers in the world for more than five years can only meet the power of the city of Tokyo for three days of power outages, and the problem of energy storage after renewable energy power generation still needs to be broken.

Energy security must not be lost. It is necessary to implement the "three new and one high" requirements, properly handle the current and long-term relationship between development and emission reduction based on national conditions, promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, and enhance the ability to ensure energy security.

During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, China's energy development has achieved remarkable results. However, from the perspective of China's energy structure, thermal power generation based on fossil energy such as coal is still the main force of power generation at present. Renewable energy such as hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaics has developed rapidly, but it is difficult to shoulder important tasks for the time being.

In accordance with the requirements of being based on the new development stage, implementing new development concepts, building a new development pattern, and promoting high-quality development, under the "dual carbon" goal, reduce the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption, and develop renewable and clean energy. It has become an inevitable requirement in the transformation of the energy structure. However, such a huge fossil energy consumption means that any "leaping forward" type "track change" will lead to problems in the supply of energy for social production and life.

In the opinion of Xie Heping, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and Dean of the Deep Earth Science and Green Energy Research Institute of Shenzhen University, my country's resource endowment and the current economic and social development reality determine that my country's economic and social development is still inseparable from coal in the short term. Even if carbon neutrality is fully achieved, my country still needs coal as a power peak shaving, carbon-based reducing agent and a bottom-line energy source for ensuring energy security. At the same time, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality also provide a forceful mechanism for improving the quality and efficiency of the industry, creating time and space.

"In general, the process of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will be a process of transformation and upgrading and even subversive development of the coal industry. Therefore, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are not just arduous challenges for the coal industry, but more importantly. A rare historical opportunity." Xie Heping said.

The energy transition cannot trigger an energy crisis. It is the bottom line that all countries in the world must adhere to in the energy transition. Energy security is related to development security and national security, and there is no room for loss. At this stage, China's industrialization and urbanization are deepening, and energy demand will inevitably continue to grow. We must implement the "three new and one high" requirements, based on national conditions, properly handle the relationship between development and emission reduction, current and long-term development, coordinate stable growth and structural adjustment, deepen market reforms in the energy sector, promote green and low-carbon transformation of energy, and improve energy Security capability. Editor/Sang Xiaomei