The importance of infrastructure investment as a powerful booster of economic growth is self-evident. Liu He, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, recently wrote an article that infrastructure construction should be carried out appropriately in advance. Market participants said that the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate in the first half of 2022, and electricity and new energy are still key areas for development.

At the 2021 China International Digital Economy Expo, which opened on September 6, Liu He once said, “We must promote infrastructure construction, optimize the supply of resources and services, protect fair competition, and oppose monopoly.” We must be good at discovering and using comparative advantages and being good at regions. Combine. Industry characteristics, strive to innovate, and carry out differentiated competition. "

The growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first half of 2022 will accelerate significantly

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said that in the first half of 2022, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will accelerate significantly. The main reason is that in the context of steady growth and rising demand, some special bond quotas for 2022 will be issued in advance in December 2021 and will be issued in the first quarter of 2022.

Combined with the unused special bond funds issued in 2021, it is estimated that there will be about 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan. The growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first half of 2022 will accelerate to about 4% to 5%. The impact of the phased downturn will ensure 2022 The macroeconomic operation in the first half of the year was within a reasonable range.

In terms of the direction of infrastructure investment, the Huatai Macro Yichang team believes that in terms of short-term and long-term goals, the first choice for infrastructure investment is undoubtedly the power and new energy fields. The recent rise in electricity prices has opened up space for more bank loans and private capital to participate in the industry chain investment, and the central bank will also provide basic financial support for this. In addition, the "bankruptcy" policy of the real estate industry may still increase investment in affordable housing.

Infrastructure investment will be repaired in the fourth quarter, but it is difficult to accelerate significantly

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that there is still more room for fiscal development in 2021. Major projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan are speeding up. Fund raising and project reserves are also speeding up at the same time. It is expected that infrastructure investment will be repaired in the fourth quarter.

However, market participants also said that from the October fiscal expenditure data, the proportion of infrastructure expenditure in public fiscal expenditure in October fell to 20.1% from 23.9% in the previous month. It can be seen that although the "post-financial positioning" in 2021 will drive fiscal expenditures in October, support for infrastructure construction has not been strengthened, and public financial support for "steady growth" is still in a state of accumulating momentum.

In addition, it is expected that by the end of November, the issuance of 3.65 trillion yuan in new special bonds will be basically completed in 2021; however, it is expected that infrastructure investment will not accelerate significantly before the end of this year. It forms a physical workload, and there will be a certain time interval.

Regarding the growth space of infrastructure investment and the construction process of major projects in 2022, Zhong Zhengsheng pointed out that major projects in 2022 will play a more important role in stabilizing growth. Therefore, it is expected that the timing of major projects may move forward appropriately. The construction period of major projects is generally 3-5 years. Therefore, it is possible to speed up the construction of projects that have already started in 2021, and advance the start time of some projects that were originally planned to be started in subsequent years, so as to better play the supporting role of major projects on the economy. Editor/Xu Shengpeng