As the core technology to promote the energy revolution, energy storage is not only an emerging industry with high technology content and huge growth potential, but also a key support for the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system and the construction of a new power system, which is related to the realization of the dual carbon goal as scheduled. . In this context, since 2021, the national and local governments have intensively issued more than 300 policies related to energy storage, and have clearly set the target of 30 GW of energy storage installations in 2030.

In the lithium battery energy storage system, the cost of the battery pack accounts for as high as 60%, which directly determines the overall economy and competitiveness of the energy storage project. The jump in the price of battery raw materials, which has continued since 2021, has triggered a series of negative chain reactions. The energy storage industry chain is facing the dilemma of a sharp reduction in the gross profit margin of battery companies, a surge in the winning bid price of energy storage projects, and forced delays or even suspension of project construction. , the energy storage industry, which is in the "window period" of development, is deeply burdened. How can energy storage companies solve the profitability problem caused by rising raw material prices? How can the energy storage industry, which is in the "window" of the policy, get out of this dilemma?

The average bid price of the project jumped 20%, and the upstream and downstream of the integrators were under pressure

The price of the energy storage industry chain is currently being conducted along the chain of "lithium carbonate - positive electrode material - energy storage cell - energy storage equipment". "Affected by factors such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the price of lithium battery materials has repeatedly set new records. The price of lithium carbonate has risen from 55,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of last year to more than 500,000 yuan / ton at present." China Energy Research Association Energy Storage Specialist Chen Haisheng, director of the committee, reminded that in the current rapid development of the energy storage industry, we should be alert to supply chain risks and price mechanism issues. "The pressure of raw material price increases has already appeared in the third quarter of 2021. The delivery cycle of battery cells has become longer, companies still need to pay in advance, and prices have risen rapidly." An energy storage integrator admitted that domestic lithium battery storage in 2021. The winning bid price of energy projects is generally 1.4 yuan/Wh, and it has risen to 1.7 yuan/Wh in 2022, an increase of up to 20%. "Looking at the 2021 annual reports of energy storage companies, the average gross profit of energy storage companies is basically less than 20%, which is equivalent to the price increase swallowing up profits. As a result, companies are very uncomfortable, either maintaining market share and giving up part of their profits; or maintaining Profits and giving up some market share are really difficult and difficult.” Compared with the new energy automobile industry, the energy industry has very limited room for price increases. On the one hand, the price of upstream battery raw materials will increase, and on the other hand, downstream new energy companies will reduce costs and save money. Energy integrators are currently facing the dilemma of being squeezed at both ends.

Jiang Li, deputy general manager of CATL, said: "From the 2022 first quarter reports of a number of energy storage listed companies disclosed, increasing revenue without increasing profits has become a common phenomenon in the industry. At present, companies mainly rely on themselves to digest and absorb the cost pressure brought about by rising raw material prices. However, this round of price increases has a wide range and a large magnitude, which has already had a considerable impact on the healthy development of the industry.”

The profit model is not yet clear, and the industrial structure is quietly changing

It is worth noting that most of the existing energy storage projects have not yet formed a stable and reasonable income model, and the phenomenon of new energy storage grid-connected projects being idle is common, and the increase in raw material prices will undoubtedly further increase the anxiety of investors. "Taking 10% of wind farms with 2-hour energy storage as an example, if the price of the energy storage system increases by 0.3 yuan/Wh, based on the current investment model of the enterprise, its internal rate of return will drop by 0.2%, which is equivalent to the cost of electricity per kilowatt hour. An increase of 0.2 cents.” Tian Qingjun, senior vice president of Envision Energy, said that due to the lag in price transmission and the concentrated delivery of projects in the fourth quarter, it is expected that the price of energy storage will continue to rise in the second half of 2022, which may lead to the construction of energy storage capacity. The overall delay, or the situation of construction and operation in stages.

In addition to the increase in the price of energy storage systems, the prices of silicon materials and photovoltaic modules have also continued to rise recently. The superimposed influence of various factors further amplifies the economic pressure of new energy investors. Chen Chao, Marketing Director of Kehua Digital Energy, pointed out that if the new installed capacity of "wind and solar" fails to meet expectations, the growth rate of energy storage as a supporting new energy project will also slow down. In his view, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the newly installed capacity of the energy storage industry will show a development trend of "slow before and fast".

Under the influence of multiple factors, the pattern of the energy storage industry is undergoing subtle changes

"Previously, investors tended to choose suppliers with performance and relevant cases, or companies with better product quality parameters. After this round of price increases, those who have metal resources such as lithium ore and have sufficient battery supply capacity Enterprises, their competitiveness will be improved." Chen Chao believes that enterprises with integrated industrial chain will stand out in the next competition. "For new energy companies, energy storage is an accessory of the project's forced allocation. The initial investment cost budget of 30 million yuan for a 20 MWh project requires that the price of the energy storage system cannot exceed 1.5 yuan/Wh, so the only choice is the price. Cheap products will bury potential safety hazards." Industry experts emphasized that in the case of rising project costs, we should be more alert to the safety problems caused by ultra-low bidding.

Multi-directional efforts to reduce costs and increase efficiency, get rid of the constraints of a single technical route

In the past, there was pressure to increase the price of raw materials, and then there was a market demand for cost reduction. How should energy storage companies respond? Since the beginning of 2022, energy storage battery companies have started a new round of production expansion. In January, China Innovation Airlines invested 20 billion yuan in Guangzhou and Jiangmen to plan and build energy storage base projects; in March, Baofeng Group's 200 GWh lithium-ion energy storage industry chain project started construction, and in the first quarter of 2022, the lithium battery field The investment amounted to hundreds of billions of yuan, and the cumulative expansion exceeded 500 GWh. At the same time, industrial chain manufacturers including CATL, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Huayou Cobalt are accelerating their rush to mine mines to get rid of the constraints of rising raw material prices as soon as possible.

Chen Chao said that energy storage system suppliers should improve product consistency through technological progress, such as increasing the voltage level, reducing the number of batteries in series, and optimizing system cooling, so as to continuously reduce the full life cycle cost of energy storage systems.

Tian Qingjun believes that energy storage companies should make efforts in the three directions of "performance, safety, and cost reduction". He said that with the gradual clarification of the energy storage price mechanism and the steady construction of power markets in various regions, paying for performance will force energy storage companies to continue to improve product performance, such as increasing cell energy density, improving battery consistency, and reducing auxiliary system performance. consumption. The intelligent IoT operating system can predict the power generation and electricity price in real time, which can realize the coordination of multi-source and multi-transaction varieties, provide the owner with the optimal charging and discharging strategy, and ensure the income of the energy storage power station.

The development of energy storage batteries with various technical routes is also an effective way to reduce costs. Hu Yongsheng, founder of Zhongke Haina, believes that the raw materials of sodium-ion batteries are rich in resources, widely distributed, and low-cost, and the physical and chemical properties and storage mechanisms of sodium and lithium are similar. production equipment. "Na-ion batteries are the first choice for non-lithium-based batteries, and can be used as a beneficial supplement to lithium-ion batteries to alleviate the limited development of energy storage batteries caused by the shortage of lithium resources to a certain extent."Editor/XingWentao