Editorial
Under the energy crisis, the EU is less united
Seetao 2022-08-02 09:09
  • The European Commission originally issued a unified solar term plan, but it ended up being reduced to 27 versions
  • Imprisoned Germany may be the only country that will follow through on plans to reduce gas consumption
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The EU seems to be in constant crisis over the years. Under the natural gas crisis, it is time to show great unity in extraordinary times. On July 26, EU energy ministers agreed on a contingency plan to reduce natural gas consumption. The plan includes a voluntary 15% reduction in natural gas consumption by member states between August 1, 2022 and March 31 the following year. A day earlier, Russian energy company Gazprom announced that from July 27, the gas supply of Nord Stream 1, the natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, will be cut in half again, that is, to 20% of full capacity. It looks as if EU countries are ready to huddle together for warmth this winter without relying on Russian gas.

In fact, when the European Commission announced the solar term plan a week ago, some EU member states expressed dissatisfaction and opposition. Spain's Ecological Transition Minister believes the plan is "neither the most effective, nor the most efficient, nor the most equitable," adding that Spain's solar terms will not help its neighbor France, given the limited gas pipeline connections to France. . The Greek energy minister said that "even if we save 15% of natural gas, it does not mean that 15% will be exported to Germany, nor does it mean that empty pipelines will be filled." The Portuguese side said that it also needs to use natural gas to generate electricity. Southern European countries are unhappy that the European Commission made such a recommendation without consulting member states.

The version of the solar term plan agreed on July 26 has many special and exceptions. Ireland, Malta and Cyprus are exempt because they are not connected to continental Europe's gas network. And Greece and other countries that rely heavily on natural gas for power generation do not need to reduce consumption, because a reduction would jeopardize domestic energy security. Also, if Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, which depend on the Russian grid, are cut off by Russia, they also allow gas to generate electricity, and so on. Someone hit the nail on the head: The European Commission originally issued a unified solar term plan, but it turned out to be 27 versions. The only country that will act according to the plan to reduce natural gas consumption may only be imprisoned Germany.

This time, Germany, always a top student in the EU class, is in a less honorable situation, finding it difficult to win sympathy in both Eastern and Southern European countries. Some Eastern European countries believe that it is because of German energy policies such as the Nord Stream project that Eastern European countries are exposed to the Russian threat. And the feud between southern European countries and Germany dates back to the debt crisis, when they were fed up with the "bosses" of Germany, which played a leading role at the time, in purging fiscal discipline. Now, because of Germany's own erroneous energy policy decisions, why ask others to tighten their pants and bring them together to clean up the mess? By unity.

In recent years, "solidarity" has become a high-frequency word in the EU. The European Commission said in its explanation of the solar term plan that "the plan is based on the principle of solidarity". European Commission President von der Leyen also said in a media interview that "solidarity in energy is the basic principle of our EU treaty." German Deputy Chancellor and Economy Minister Habeck has been calling for unity, saying that "since we jointly decided to sanction Russia, we must share the consequences of sanctions." Habeck also explained the extension of "solidarity": even if countries that are not directly hit by Russia's weakening of gas supplies should help other countries, otherwise, there is no so-called European solidarity. It can be said that this is not a question of "everyone sweeps the snow in front of their own door, who cares about the frost on the tiles of others", but even if there is no snow in front of the house, help the neighbors to sweep the snow. Harbeck also pointed out that if Germany once fell into an economic crisis, it would spread to the entire European Union.

According to Germany's perspective, EU countries are on the same boat under the shortage of natural gas. However, according to the value of Russian natural gas imports by various countries since the Russian-Ukrainian war, CREA data in April shows that Germany ranks first, followed by Italy, both of which are much higher than other EU countries such as Spain and Poland. It is worth mentioning that only a few EU member states, including Germany and Denmark, have signed "bilateral agreements of solidarity" for mutual assistance in the event of an extreme gas crisis. On the one hand, Hungary, which has "taken a different approach", is busy seeking more Russian natural gas imports, and on the other hand, has announced that it has entered an energy emergency phase and banned natural gas exports. From this point of view, the call for solidarity, in addition to the need for crisis, may also call for something the more it lacks.

In addition to Germany, the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, also calls for unity. However, in the specific crisis management, playing the card of solidarity is not enough. The more critical question is how much room for the European Commission to operate and where to stop. ? Member states want to ensure their autonomy and avoid excessive intervention by EU institutions, especially in energy policy, and the European Commission needs a certain space to coordinate the solidarity and mutual support of member states. The solar terms announced by the European Commission this time also include that if voluntary solar terms cannot fill the huge gap between natural gas supply and demand, and the natural gas supply enters an emergency, the European Commission may announce that the EU has entered the "Union Alert" stage, which means that member states The solar term is no longer voluntary, but mandatory and binding. The legal basis for this possibility is Article 122 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU), and the imminent gas crisis situation in the EU may be interpreted as the scenario stated in the first point: “especially when the supply of certain products in serious trouble, especially in the energy sector", "in a spirit of solidarity among member states".

From a practical point of view, Article 122 can be an effective tool for the European Commission to deal with the crisis. With the support of 55% of member states, that is, the support of 15 countries representing 65% of citizens in the EU, the EU can activate Article 122 strip. At the same time, however, activating Article 122 is not so easy in a complex group of interests with 27 member states. During the new crown epidemic, the EU launched a new crown epidemic reconstruction plan of 750 billion euros, and the basis for seeking is also Article 122. The plan is financed by the European Commission in the capital market on behalf of the European Union to help recover the economies of member states hit by the epidemic. At that time, there was a lot of opposition in Germany, on the grounds that the plan broke the rules prohibiting EU borrowing, and some even warned that the European Union would become a "debt union". The reason given by then Chancellor Merkel and then Finance Minister Scholz was also Article 122, that exceptions are allowed in emergency situations, and that such exceptions are one-time and limited. The plan has long been approved by member states, but in Germany, litigation over whether the German government's transfer of powers to the EU over the reconstruction plan violates the basic law is still ongoing.

Looking back on 2022, which is more than halfway through, under the Russian-Ukrainian war, the EU and EU countries have shown unprecedented unity to Ukraine. And under the decoupling of Russia's energy, under the threat that Russia's natural gas supply may be cut off at any time, the burden behind the unity is getting heavier and heavier. This winter, how cold the weather is, how much natural gas is there, whether the EU countries need it, and whether they will gather together for heating, are all unknown. Editor / Xu Shengpeng


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