With the roar of excavators, new projects in many places started intensively. According to the data, in July 2022, a total of 3,876 major projects have been started in China, with a total investment of 2,393.059 billion yuan. Among them, infrastructure projects are still one of the key areas of intensive construction in various places.

The recently released "Excavator Index" shows that in the first half of 2022, the total working hours of excavators increased by 6.86% year-on-year, and the monthly operating rate of construction machinery was 60.37%. Among them, the monthly operating rate of construction machinery in the second quarter was 66.77%. significantly higher than the first quarter. Infrastructure investment has been increasing month by month. After entering August, infrastructure construction accelerated again.

According to Du Yue, deputy director of the Investment Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, this round of stable investment has obvious characteristics. It aims to solve the problem of project capital, accelerate the progress of project construction, and form a physical workload as soon as possible. It is expected that there will be more investment in the third quarter. Major projects have started construction, and the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to pick up significantly, strongly supporting economic recovery.

"The issuance of special bonds issued in 2022 has been basically completed, and it is expected to be basically used by the end of August. The issuance and use of special bonds will provide strong support for the physical workload of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year, and the scope of support will be expanded to new infrastructure. , new energy projects." Du Yue said. He predicts that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the third quarter will usher in an annual high. In the opinion of market participants, the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment may even reach more than 11%.

Policy force

After entering August, infrastructure construction in various places has accelerated again. On August 1, the Zhenjiang Industrial Park in Shaoguan, Guangdong was buzzing with drums and drums. The first batch of projects in the starting area of the Shaoguan Data Center Cluster, the hub of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, started here. The total investment of only five data center projects is close to 21.5 billion yuan; On August 2, Fangchenggang, Guangxi, started construction of 48 projects involving new energy, green manufacturing, infrastructure, cold chain logistics, medical education and other fields, with a total investment of 41.8 billion yuan; on August 3, the construction of major projects in the State Grid At the promotion meeting, the relevant person in charge of the power grid said, "The investment of nearly 300 billion yuan will be completed by the end of the year, and the physical workload will be formed as soon as possible to release market demand." It will also ensure that Nanyang-Changsha and Jingmen-Wuhan UHV will be put into operation within the year.

In fact, recently, from the central to local governments, the redeployment of stable investment has been continued.

The State Council executive meeting held on July 29 pointed out that effective investment should play a key role in economic recovery and development. Make good use of policy-based development financial instruments in a market-oriented way, and support projects that comply with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and other plans, which will benefit both the current and the long-term, and mainly invest in infrastructure and new infrastructure such as transportation, energy, logistics, agriculture and rural areas . Projects must be mature, effective, and able to play a role as soon as possible, and competitive industries must rely entirely on market-based development. The coordination mechanism for effective investment in important projects should continue to operate efficiently, open up green channels, implement parallel approvals, speed up the procedures for environmental impact assessment of land use and energy use in accordance with laws and regulations, and form more physical workloads as soon as possible in the third quarter on the premise of ensuring project quality.

The briefing on the development and reform situation in the first half of the year held by the National Development and Reform Commission on August 1 will also emphasize that it is necessary to give full play to the key role of investment, better play the role of the coordination mechanism for promoting effective investment in important projects, and earnestly increase efforts to do a good job in the preliminary work of the project, and speed up the policy Funding of development financial instruments and the formation of physical workload as soon as possible.

"Judging from the situation of the reserved projects, in the second half of the year, various localities and key enterprises will increase investment, and a number of major projects will start construction, especially social capital investment has great potential." Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission express this. The effect is also immediate.

Judging from the high-frequency data, the cement, petroleum asphalt and other data related to the start of the project have steadily increased. Data show that since mid-February, the operating rate of cement mills has maintained a recovery trend, and since July, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt has further recovered. From July 22 to 28, the operating rate of cement mills reached 48.22%, a significant month-on-month increase.

According to the plan, the National Development and Reform Commission will create a good investment and financing environment, promote banking financial institutions, REITs funds and other investment in major new infrastructure construction projects, give play to the role of emerging industry venture capital guidance funds, provide convenience for financing in related fields of small and medium-sized enterprises, and further stimulate Social capital investment enthusiasm.

Multi-link guarantee of infrastructure funds

According to Lu Suiqi, deputy director of the Department of Finance, School of Economics, Peking University, since 2022, the importance of appropriately advancing infrastructure investment has become more prominent.

"In the second half of 2022, it is a favorable time to make efforts in infrastructure investment, and the next step is to make good use of a number of support measures proposed in the "Package of Policy Measures for Solidly Stabilizing the Economy", such as accelerating the promotion of a number of well-proven water conservancy projects. project, accelerate the promotion of investment in transportation infrastructure, continue to promote the construction of urban underground comprehensive pipe corridors according to local conditions, stabilize and expand infrastructure investment, etc." Lv Suiqi said.

In order to ensure the financial funds for infrastructure investment, the recent meeting of the Central Bank requested that policy-based development financial tools be used well, and efforts should be made to support the construction of infrastructure fields. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission also requested to guide and increase financial support for infrastructure construction projects.

In a package of 33 measures to stabilize the economy issued by the State Council, it was proposed to expand the scope of application of local special bonds and include new infrastructure for the first time. With the support of multiple departments, Lv Suiqi believes that the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in July will continue to pick up, providing strong support for stabilizing the macroeconomic market and promoting a steady economic recovery.

On the capital side, from the monetary and financial policy of the State Council’s package of policy measures to stabilize the economy at the end of May, it specifically mentioned “increasing the support of financial institutions for infrastructure construction and major projects”, to the State Council executive meeting. The development of financial instruments to support the construction of major projects, many departments are continuing to guide the flow of financial water into the field of infrastructure.

In terms of special bonds, the issuance process has been basically completed. The Ministry of Finance stated that it will speed up the issuance and use of the 3.45 trillion yuan of special bonds issued in 2022, and strive to basically use it up by the end of August. On the basis of the nine major areas of transportation infrastructure, energy, and affordable housing projects identified in the early stage, the areas of special bond support will be appropriately expanded, and new infrastructure and new energy projects will be included in the scope of support as a priority.

It is worth noting that the construction business activity index in the non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index in July rebounded from that in June, indicating that the infrastructure investment is booming.

"In July, the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment was still more than 10%. In terms of physical workload, the material consumption index of asphalt, which is closely related to road construction, was basically the same as that of the same period last year in the fourth week of June, and continued to rebound in July. In terms of funds, special bonds will be allocated and used at an accelerated pace in the third quarter." Zhang Wenlang, chief macro analyst at CICC expects.

In the opinion of market participants, the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2022 is expected to reach more than 11%, and the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in the second half of the year may show a certain degree of resilience. Editor / Xu Shengpeng