As one of the parties to the Paris Climate Agreement, China has been actively fulfilling its international emission reduction obligations in recent years. Domestically, while vigorously promoting industrial transformation and upgrading and achieving high-quality economic development, China has clearly put forward the goals of achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.Internationally, since the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China's energy investment in countries along the route has yielded fruitful results. A large number of landmark energy cooperation projects have been successfully implemented, achieving good economic and social benefits and bringing tangible benefits to the people of all countries. benefit. However, the Belt and Road energy investment must also be combined with climate change, a global public issue related to human destiny. How to integrate ecological civilization and green development into local economic development also faces some challenges.

Challenges facing energy investment transition

In the post-Paris Agreement era, the green transition of China's Belt and Road energy investment is very difficult, and there are deep-seated structural reasons behind it. Factors such as the imbalance of energy supply and demand in countries along the Belt and Road, China's role as a major power, and the strategic game between China and the United States will hinder China from launching a new round of green energy investment in countries along the Belt and Road. Specifically, we can discuss the current challenges facing China in promoting the green transition of energy investment in the Belt and Road from the perspectives of the host country, the investor country (China) and a third country.

From the perspective of host countries, most of China's energy investment targets along the Belt and Road are developing countries. According to the World Bank data, the urbanization level of more than half of the countries along the Belt and Road is less than 50%, and 1/3 of the countries are less than 35%. These countries are still in the primary stage of urbanization. In the growth period, the demand for energy consumption is high. Due to the lagging economic development and technological level, and the low energy development and utilization rate, the energy supply of the countries along the Belt and Road cannot match the rapidly growing energy demand, and they are facing serious energy shortages.

Take Pakistan as an example of China's important energy investment along the Belt and Road. The country has been plagued by energy shortages for a long time. From 2009 to 2017, it encountered the most serious energy crisis in history. Due to the lack of electricity, the company was forced to stop work and production, which limited the development of the national economy.

Under the vicious circle of backward economy and technology and imbalance of energy supply and demand, countries along the Belt and Road have developed a strong dependence on low-cost coal energy investment. At the same time, the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has further highlighted the disadvantaged position of countries along the Belt and Road in the global energy transition.

In developed countries, adequate capital supply ensures that assistance to the fossil energy industry and the transition to alternative energy are carried out simultaneously; while in low- and middle-income countries along the Belt and Road, the epidemic has exacerbated financing difficulties and hindered the transformation and substitution of fuels. Investment in energy infrastructure. To sum up, the "one high and two low" model of high demand, low supply and low substitution determines that in the post-Paris Agreement era, the energy investment received by countries along the Belt and Road will still be dominated by traditional fossil energy projects.

From the perspective of the investing country itself, China is facing a difficult role in the energy investment of the Belt and Road Initiative.

On the one hand, as the world's largest carbon emitter, how China takes actions to fulfill its commitments under the Paris Agreement will inevitably be closely watched by members of the international community. Although China has no right to make commitments on the carbon emissions of countries along the Belt and Road, if Chinese companies continue to invest in large-scale fossil energy in these countries, it will indirectly lead to the continuous growth of regional carbon emissions, which is not conducive to the realization of " The overall goal of the Paris Agreement is also not conducive to showing China's role as a major country in the process of global climate governance.

On the other hand, as the initiator of the Belt and Road Initiative, China has the responsibility to respond to the development needs of the countries along the route. In the past few years, China's energy investment in countries along the Belt and Road has not only brought economic benefits to itself, but also greatly alleviated the local energy shortage problem.

If China reduces or even withdraws fossil energy investment in the short term, it may adversely affect the energy supply of host countries and affect the credibility of the Belt and Road Initiative. However, new energy investment is faced with problems such as new business models and long investment return cycles, and it is difficult to completely make up for the lack of investment caused by the withdrawal of traditional energy investment projects in the short term.

Based on the above two considerations, China may selectively reduce its investment in fossil energy along the Belt and Road in the next few years. Although China has stopped coal investment in countries along the Belt and Road in 2021, it has stepped up investment in other fossil fuels in the same year. Compared with 2020, China's investment in the oil and gas sector in countries along the Belt and Road will increase by about three times in 2021.

From the perspective of a third-party country, after entering the post-Paris era, the overall goal of the US-led Western countries to engage in comprehensive strategic competition with China and try to contain the Belt and Road Initiative is unlikely to change. The core goal of the Biden administration's foreign policy is to revive the United States' world leadership, which includes returning the United States to the "Paris Agreement" and competing with China for dominance in the field of global climate governance.

At the same time, considering the growing influence of the Belt and Road Initiative, the Biden administration is likely to use the relevant provisions of the Paris Agreement to impose high standards on the implementation of Belt and Road infrastructure projects on the grounds of addressing climate change. Environmentally responsible and competing with the Belt and Road Initiative through the "Building Back a Better World" initiative presented at the G7 meeting.

In addition, the United States may also use alternative aids and other means to introduce American technology and capital to countries along the Belt and Road to reduce investment space for China’s new energy projects, while lobbying relevant countries to boycott Chinese investment on grounds such as “economic authoritarian control” , obstructing China's energy investment in countries along the Belt and Road by means of "carrot and stick".

Apart from the US, the EU is actively competing with China in overseas energy investment. As they hope to maintain their leading edge in core technologies and brands in the field of new energy, EU countries may take measures against Chinese new energy companies such as strengthening anti-dumping investigations, which will bring new opportunities for China to participate in the green transformation of energy investment in the Belt and Road Initiative. challenge.

Energy investment to transition to green

Despite facing many challenges, China has made great progress in the green transformation of energy investment in countries along the Belt and Road. Especially since the signing of the Paris Agreement, China, as one of the parties, has assumed corresponding responsibilities and obligations.

On the one hand, China insists on promoting energy conservation, consumption reduction and emission reduction in coal projects. The investment in coal projects in the Belt and Road countries has shown a steady downward trend since peaking in 2015, and will be officially cleared in 2021; on the other hand, China has launched a With a large number of clean energy projects, the proportion of renewable energy investment in the total energy investment in the Belt and Road is increasing, and wind energy, solar energy and hydropower have become new investment hotspots.

Judging from the current trend, China's incremental energy investment in the countries along the Belt and Road will generally be dominated by clean energy, and at the same time, it will further transform and upgrade the investment stock, so as to satisfy the production and life of local people, while taking into account the ecological and other goals.

Specifically, China should continue to insist on not investing in coal-fired power projects in countries along the Belt and Road, and at the same time invest more wisely in oil and natural gas, and steadily increase the proportion of clean energy investment. While improving the structure of energy investment, as the initiator of the Belt and Road Initiative, China should also pay attention to maintaining the image of a responsible partner, and cannot withdraw from existing fossil energy investment projects prematurely, resulting in a shortage of energy in the host country.

On the contrary, China can carry out clean transformation of the already invested fossil energy projects in the Belt and Road Initiative using clean coal technology, etc., and transform and upgrade energy investment on the basis of avoiding the dislocation of supply and demand, so as to take into account the reasonable development concerns of relevant countries. In addition to direct investment, China should further strengthen cultural and technological exchanges with countries along the Belt and Road, convey the value concept of sustainable development, and promote the concept of green development to be deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Industrial system and create an infrastructure environment conducive to the entry of green investment. Keywords: infrastructure, infrastructure construction, domestic engineering news, planning and investment

In the post-Paris era, responding to the threat of climate change, accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the energy consumption structure, and promoting high-quality economic development are the common goals of the international community. China's participation in the green transformation of energy investment in the Belt and Road is not only beneficial to the well-being of the people of the countries along the route, but also in line with the common vision of all mankind. China should continue to play the role of the initiator and leader of the Belt and Road Initiative, and on the premise of not violating climate commitments, provide assistance within its capacity to countries along the route and their people, so as to promote the realization of regional economic integration and high-quality common development. Editor / Xu Shengpeng