In the post-epidemic era, with the steady growth of domestic investment, the demand for international trade continues to expand. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs a few days ago, in the first seven months of 2022, China's total import and export value was 23.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.4% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports were 13.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.7%; imports were 10.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.3%. In July, the total value of China's imports and exports was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.6%. Among them, exports were 2.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9%; imports were 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%.

In general, since 2022, China has effectively coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and foreign trade imports and exports have overcome many adverse effects such as the tightening of the external environment and the short-term impact of the epidemic, and achieved rapid growth. Li Kuiwen, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, said that imports and exports in July increased by 16.6% year-on-year, continuing the trend of China's foreign trade growth since May, and making positive contributions to stabilizing the macroeconomic market.

What kind of positive signal is released by the recovery of foreign trade growth under the recovery of consumption? As a new form of foreign trade, cross-border e-commerce, what kind of water temperature changes did you perceive in the first half of the year, and what state and mentality will you prepare for the second half of the year to respond to challenges and opportunities?

The rebound of import and export growth shows the strong resilience of foreign trade development

Chen Hongbin, chief economist of Pengyang Fund, said in an interview that despite the outbreak of the epidemic in April, China achieved such a dazzling import and export performance in the first seven months of 2022, which was a hard-won achievement and fully demonstrated the resilience of China's foreign trade. At the same time, it will also release some positive signals for the sustained recovery of the economy and consumption in the second half of the year.

In terms of exports, Chen Hongbin pointed out that the double-digit growth rate has been maintained for the past three consecutive months. This shows that overseas demand has not been substantially reduced, and on the other hand, it also reflects the strong international competitiveness of Chinese products. Against the backdrop of high overseas inflation, price factors are expected to support China's exports to remain resilient in the second half of the year. In terms of imports, the current year-on-year growth rate is lower than expected due to the impact of the epidemic in April. However, with the gradual implementation of the previous economic policies and the recovery of the economy's own initiative, imports are likely to usher in a gradual recovery in the second half of the year.

"First of all, China's manufacturing export competitiveness is strong, especially the outstanding performance of automobile exports, and the cost reduction brought about by the reduction of upstream bulk commodity prices may bring about a significant improvement in profitability; secondly, China's domestic demand may usher in the second half of the year and even next year. Continued recovery, you can pay attention to the sectors that benefit from the recovery of domestic demand; finally, for domestically-made alternatives or related high-tech sectors that are independently controllable, they will continue to benefit from the country’s overall strategic orientation in the medium and long term.” Specific to the subdivision investment focus areas, Chen Hongbin summarized three directions.

In the view of Zhang Jingjing, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities R&D Center, the increase in China's import volume compared with June and July not only reflects the style change that China's export commodity structure can quickly adapt to global demand, but also shows domestic stability. The policy effect of supply chain and promoting the resumption of work and production has appeared. To a certain extent, this means that as long as there is no large-scale rebound of the epidemic in China, the advantages of the industrial chain itself will also contribute to export growth.

Zhang Jingjing specifically mentioned that since the end of July, some high-frequency indicators of domestic commodities have recovered. The construction PMI continued to improve in July, and the possibility of domestic investment demand from weak to strong has increased, which will help to stimulate import demand. In August, the growth rate of imports further increased. is more likely.

Made in China to take the wind to the sea

At present, cross-border e-commerce has become a new driving force for foreign trade development, a new channel for transformation and upgrading, and a new starting point for high-quality development. As a new form of foreign trade, cross-border e-commerce has entered the second half of 2022, and the entrants of the track have also sensed the warming of the water temperature.

The cross-border index of Alibaba International Station was released in August, among which new energy, heavy machinery, building materials, outdoor energy storage and other fields gained gratifying performance. From the rapid growth of consumer goods in the early stage of the epidemic to the accelerated emergence of new energy, building materials and other fields in the first half of 2022, China's export supply chain has also shown structural optimization and adjustment in addition to rapidly adapting to overseas consumer demand. Among them, China's new energy industry leads the world, and the upstream and downstream supply chains are becoming more and more perfect.

It is worth noting that the cross-border index of Alibaba International Station in August shows that China Mobile Home’s online GMV has increased by 117% in the past two years, and the search volume of “ready-made houses” and “expandable container houses” has increased by about 8 times. In addition, after the epidemic, the world has set off a boom in infrastructure construction. At the time when machinery industry brands are going overseas, the markets of the Belt and Road countries represented by Southeast Asia have a great demand for Chinese machinery. As of June 30, 2022, the GMV of cross-border trade between Alibaba International Station and the 14 ASEAN countries increased by 31.5%.

This also reflects the obvious supporting role of current trade diversification on China's exports. Under the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China's exports to ASEAN continued to grow rapidly, and the RCEP dividend was gradually emerging. In July, China's imports and exports to RCEP trading partners reached 1.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, driving the overall import and export growth by 5.6 percentage points. Li Kuiwen said that the effective implementation of RCEP has further deepened regional economic interconnection and trade and investment cooperation, and provided new momentum for regional economic recovery and development.

Continuously innovating and launching at least 10 new "mobile houses" every year, Zhonghui Lvjian Container Co., Ltd.'s products sell well in Thailand, New Zealand, the United States and other destination countries. "In terms of product innovation, it can achieve thermal insulation, structural safety, moisture-proof and anti-corrosion, and convenient installation. The entire interior of the house can realize digital intelligent control. In terms of emergency efficiency, for example, more than 600 beds can be built in 4 days. A hospital can build an emergency resettlement room with two bedrooms and one living room in 15 minutes, which is beyond the reach of any traditional building." The relevant person in charge of Zhonghui Green Construction Co., Ltd. bluntly looked forward to the innovation of China's "intelligent" construction in the second half of the year.

The annual sales are nearly 3 billion, and the person in charge of a super big seller in Shenzhen told that the water temperature has been clearly felt since August 2022. "Compared with July, our total sales in August increased by 20%, and both the order volume and the unit price of customers have further increased. This is largely due to two aspects. The first is the return of the domestic supply chain. The second is the return to rationality of the external consumption environment such as the digestion of overseas inventories and the decline in logistics costs.”

The Shenzhen cross-border seller added that the cross-border e-commerce track had a wave of overdrafts in 2020 due to the consumption dividend brought about by the epidemic. In the second half of 2021, the overseas inventory of related consumer goods will also be digested similarly. More than 60% of the product categories have entered the replenishment stage. In addition, he also pointed out that the shipping container fee has dropped from about 20,000 yuan in the past to 6,000-7,000 yuan, and recently it has been reduced every week. "The overall environment is releasing a positive signal that the supply chain is stabilizing and consumption is heating up, and everyone will have more confidence." Editor / Xu Shengpeng