With the gradual improvement of the impact of the global new crown epidemic, the international engineering construction market has begun to pick up, and the traditional construction peak season has been disturbed. In August 2022, the sales volume of excavators was the same year-on-year. Although only one unit was added in the data, it was still in the improvement range, which was in line with expectations.

During the period, the weakening of the characteristics of real estate investment had a weak impact on the sales volume, and the domestic decline expanded slightly; while the export increased continuously, accounting for 49.7% of the total sales, hitting a new record high. Major companies continued to expand in key regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Open up, the market outlook can be expected.

Same year-on-year, overall sales in line with expectations

According to the industry calculation data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in August 2022, the 26 mainframe manufacturing enterprises included in the calculation sold a total of 18,076 excavators of various types, which was equal to the same period of the previous year (18,075 units in the previous year). During this period, the sales volume in the domestic market was 9,096 units, a year-on-year decrease of 26.3%; the export sales volume was 8,980 units, a year-on-year increase of 56.7%.

From January to August 2022, a total of 179,109 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 30.9%. During this period, the domestic market sales volume was 109,470 units, a year-on-year decrease of 49.9%; the export sales volume was 69,639 units, a year-on-year increase of 70.1%.

In July of this year, the sales of excavators achieved the first positive increase after the "14 consecutive declines". Although it was not consecutive in August, the downward cycle in the stock market was gratifying enough to meet sales expectations. The main reason is that The weakness of the domestic market, the year-on-year growth rate fell by 1.4 percentage points, which is also the year-on-year decline in domestic excavator sales for 17 consecutive months since April last year.

Domestic weakness is the main reason for the expansion of the decline

In August, the domestic decline expanded slightly month-on-month. From a structural point of view, China digging has become the primary drag factor. The decline in domestic small mining in August was basically the same as that in July, -12.8% year-on-year (-12.7% in July), while the decline in large mining was narrowed to -32.6% (-35.9% in July), while the decline in medium mining fell. The expansion was -47.8% (-42.2% in July), mainly due to the weakening of the characteristics of domestic real estate investment.

In terms of real estate, according to the calculation of the China Index Research Institute, the overall transaction volume of the property market continued to decline in August, and the overall transaction volume of the first-tier cities fell by -17.3% month-on-month. Although the central bank has lowered the LPR by 15 basis points for a period of more than 5 years, and the National Standing Committee has emphasized local policies such as "one city, one policy" and flexible use of credit, the characteristics of real estate investment are still weakened. difficult to recover in the short term.

In terms of capital construction investment, according to the calculation of the big data of infrastructure construction, there were about 60 major construction projects nationwide in August, with a total investment of about 584 billion yuan, including highways, subways, water conservancy, housing construction, urban renovation, industrial parks and other projects. higher level.

In terms of capital, by the end of August, China had issued a total of 3.52 trillion yuan of special bonds, and the quota for project construction had basically ended, much earlier than before. At the same time, by the end of July, the central government has allocated 9.17 trillion yuan to local transportation, accounting for 93.6% of the total annual scale, and all qualified funds have been allocated. The acceleration of funds below will guarantee the subsequent growth rate of infrastructure investment.

The proportion of exports reaches a new high, and the sword is aimed at Southeast Asia

The export market continued to perform well. In August, the export sales of excavators increased by 56.7% year-on-year and 3.3% month-on-month. The export volume has accounted for 49.7% of the total sales, accounting for a new high, creating a miracle of year-on-year increase for 62 consecutive months.

The increase in exports can also be seen from the semi-annual reports released by major construction machinery companies: affected by the downward cycle of construction machinery, the performance of related listed companies in the first half of the year was weak, but the overseas revenue was outstanding, and 9 construction machinery factories exported in the first half of the year. The total revenue from export sales was 41.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.11%, and the export revenue accounted for 33.32%.

During the period, Sany Heavy Industry achieved international sales revenue of 16.534 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 32.87%, accounting for 41% of the total revenue, a year-on-year increase of 33.24 percentage points. Judging from SANY's sales in various overseas regions in the first half of the year, Asia and Australia accounted for the largest proportion, and the Americas region grew rapidly.

In the first half of the year, XCMG's overseas revenue increased by 71.8%. In the meantime, the company's performance in Brazil was outstanding, with revenue exceeding the entire previous year. The company's overseas sales markets also include Germany, India, and Uzbekistan.

The increase in the proportion of overseas revenue of leading companies such as Xugong Machinery and Sany Heavy Industry has also buffered the downside risk of domestic sales due to cyclical fluctuations to a certain extent. Domestic brands have begun to enter Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America and other regions with low per capita excavator ownership.

In the third quarter, the construction boom is expected, and the sales volume is expected to increase continuously

Recently, a number of major projects in Hubei, Shaanxi and other places have been started, with a total investment of over one trillion yuan. Jiangsu, Henan and other places have successively introduced specific measures to accelerate infrastructure construction... Industry insiders said that in the autumn, the construction conditions will be further improved, coupled with bonds, credit, innovative financial tools, PPP (government and social capital cooperation) and other tools The incoming funds are accelerating in place, and a batch of key infrastructure projects are expected to start construction in the third quarter, bringing together the strong synergy of effective investment. The year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to rise to the highest level this year, and it is estimated that the annual infrastructure investment will increase by 13.7%.

It is worth noting that the transmission of infrastructure investment and the driving demand for excavator sales must be transmitted over time. Regarding the market outlook, with the weakening of the base effect and the start of major projects, the decline in domestic sales of construction machinery represented by excavators will continue to narrow. With the continuous high increase in exports, it is estimated that the sales of excavators in September and October will increase. good performance. Editor / Xu Shengpeng