In the face of the impact of the epidemic, economic recovery has become the top priority, and infrastructure investment is of no doubt important. On November 28, 2022, the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) revealed that Luo Guosan, director general of the Department of Investment of the NDRC, presided over a video scheduling meeting of national Fund projects on November 25, and pointed out that the construction and fund payment progress of two batches of policy-based development financial instruments signed for release (hereinafter referred to as "fund projects") were better than expected. The following is the "final 5 days" to achieve the goal of all projects started before November 30.

Since July, policy-based development financial instruments have continued to replenish capital for major projects and leverage supporting financing from commercial banks to support infrastructure investment and boost economic growth throughout the year. Entering November, all places continue to seize the construction window, accelerate the formation of physical workload, while boosting downstream data continued to rise. Experts expect that the issuance and use of the special bond balance limit in the second half of the year, together with policy-oriented development financial instruments, will provide a guarantee for the annual double-digit growth of infrastructure construction.

The pace of construction started in November continued unabated

Through grassroots investigation and market research, it is estimated that the sales volume of excavators (including export) in November will reach about 25500, an increase of 25% year-on-year; Among them, the domestic market is estimated to sell 15,500 units, the growth rate is rising to about 11%; The export market is estimated to sell 10,000 units, with a growth rate of about 55%.

Excavators are a barometer of economic changes such as infrastructure construction and fixed asset investment. In fact, the pace of construction continued unabated in November.

From November 1 to 15, 28 major projects were launched nationwide, with total investment exceeding 229.6 billion yuan, according to data from Infrastructure Link. In the second half of this month, many places also held major projects to start work.

Xiamen, east China's Fujian province, kicked off construction of 50 major projects in 2022 on Nov. 17, with a total investment of 79.7 billion yuan. On October 22, Xiamen Development and Reform Commission announced that the annual investment plan had been completed ahead of schedule. From January to October, the actual investment of 125 projects under construction had been completed at 76.993 billion yuan, exceeding the planned investment of 15.517 billion yuan in the same period, which was 105.22% of the annual planned investment.

On November 25, Yunnan province held a meeting to promote the construction of key water conservancy projects in winter and spring 2022. 100 key water conservancy projects were started, with a total investment of 51.5 billion yuan. On November 27, Beijing's Daxing district announced that 14 major projects, with a total investment of more than 17.1 billion yuan, have been included in the municipal major projects started in the fourth quarter, 13 of which have already started construction.

The meeting of the National Development and Reform Commission also clearly pointed out that we should urge and guide local governments to accelerate the construction of fund projects and form more physical workload as soon as possible. The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that it will increase the daily dispatch and supervision of key areas, key industries and key projects, strive to start all projects on schedule, and adjust the projects that cannot start on schedule according to procedures. At the same time, we organized and carried out the related work of "looking back", urged the construction of fund projects to accelerate, and understood the problems existing in the process of project implementation, so as to solve them in a targeted way.

In addition, the NDRC stressed the need to strengthen supervision, prohibit fake construction, avoid misappropriation of funds, build a clean project, and ensure that all work in accordance with the law, can stand the test of history, leaving no after-effects. We will further intensify publicity for major investment projects such as funds, strengthen guidance on expectations, and boost confidence in investment.

Double-digit growth in infrastructure investment

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, infrastructure investment grew by 8.7 percent year on year in the January-October period, 0.1 percentage point faster than the first three quarters of the year and up for six consecutive months.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and director of the research institute of Yuekai Securities, pointed out that in the second half of the year, special bonds will be issued and used more than 600 billion yuan of policy financial instruments by accelerating the issuance and use of balance limits, which will provide a guarantee for the double-digit growth of infrastructure investment.

On June 29, the executive meeting of The State Council proposed for the first time "to determine the measures of policy-based and development financial instruments to support the construction of major projects". According to the report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the third quarter of 2022, released by the People's Bank of China on November 16, by the end of October, the two batches of policy-based development financial instruments had issued a total of 740 billion yuan. It has effectively supplemented the capital of a number of major projects in the fields of transportation, energy, water conservancy, municipal administration and industrial upgrading infrastructure. At the same time, the relevant supporting financing is also actively follow up. According to data from the People's Bank of China, the total credit line for projects supported by financial instruments by banks has exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan, effectively meeting the diversified financing needs for project construction. In addition, the regular session of The State Council on September 7 decided to issue the ceiling of over 500 billion yuan of special bonds outstanding by local governments since 2019 before the end of October.

Luo Zhiheng pointed out that special bonds and policy-based financial instruments will remain the focus of next year's infrastructure development. He suggested that the special debt should be further strengthened with the policy-based finance, promote the implementation of projects to form a physical workload, so the actual available special debt funds need to maintain a certain scale, to avoid the funds are not received.

Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist of Everbright Securities, also wrote recently that whether it is 800 billion policy bank credit, 600 billion policy financial instruments or 500 billion special bond limit, all point to the positive force of the broad fiscal, under the broad fiscal support, the annual growth rate of infrastructure may reach more than 10%. Editor/Xu Shengpeng