In order to break through the siege of Western countries, Russia had previously proposed the idea of uniting Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to establish a tripartite natural gas alliance. As a result, Uzbekistan media recently revealed that during the negotiation process with Russia, Russia would actually ask Uzbekistan to Abandoning natural gas exports to China has become one of the conditions.

President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan

Originally one of the countries with the most abundant natural gas resources, Uzbekistan is facing an energy collapse in 2023. In the extremely cold winter, this energy exporting country not only suspended the export of natural gas, but even started to save energy through measures such as power outages and business suspension.

In order to solve the dilemma of neighboring countries, Russia proposed to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which are facing the same problem, respectively at the end of November 2022, saying that they would establish a tripartite natural gas alliance on the premise of putting aside political factors. The Russian side stated that the proposal to establish an alliance is very reasonable. On the one hand, it can solve the problem of natural gas shortage between the two countries, and on the other hand, it can also fulfill the contract between the two countries to supply gas to China.

China and Uzbekistan cooperate in transportation

However, recently, the Ukrainian media revealed that during the discussion with the Russian side, the Russian side put forward two major conditions for the Uzbek side. Giving up the right to export natural gas to China means that Gazprom will replace the Ukrainian company as a supplier of gas to China.

Although Russia's proposal can reasonably solve Uzbekistan's current predicament, in the face of the Chinese market, Uzbekistan resolutely rejected Russia's proposal. Uzbekistan's Energy Minister stated that Uzbekistan will never exchange political conditions for natural gas.

In fact, Russia’s move is not simply to help Uzbekistan. The most fundamental purpose of its proposed tripartite natural gas alliance is to return blood through Uzbekistan.

The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused Russia to lose its largest European market before, and Russian energy has also become a key target of Western suppression. As the line of conflict stretches, Russia has to find ways to find new energy export channels in order to obtain funds to support the conflict. Therefore, when Russia approached Ukrainian and Kazakhstan, it wanted to use them to sell Russian gas as a consignment, so that Russia could regain blood, and fundamentally restrict Europe from purchasing energy from other countries.

In fact, apart from these two countries, Russia has currently opened a similar channel in Turkey. Not long ago, Russia and Turkey established a natural gas hub, and Turkey officially became an agent of Gazprom, so that Russia can not only bypass EU sanctions, but also supply natural gas to countries in need. Soon after, Bulgaria came to the door and signed a 13-year agreement with Turkey.

In addition, if the Russian natural gas pipeline can be connected with Ukrainian and Kazakhstan, Russia can also reduce the cost of gas transmission to China, and the three countries can jointly become a seller's market. Central Asian countries are the main countries for China's energy imports. If these countries raise prices on the ground, it will be very unfavorable to China. Although the relationship between China and Russia is close, we still cannot relax our vigilance in the face of interests.

When it comes to China's interests, Uzbekistan also has its own considerations. In the past, China imported a large amount of natural gas from Uzbekistan. In the first four months of last year, Uzbekistan delivered gas to China, and its revenue doubled compared to 2021. Moreover, China and Ukraine are also cooperating in the fields of transportation, economy, trade and investment.Editor/Xing Wentao