In 2023, China's construction machinery industry is expected to continue to grow
- In 2023, the sales volume of excavators in the industry is expected to achieve a small positive growth
- Mainly affected by the base effect, the pull of domestic infrastructure projects, and the change of emission standards from China III to China IV
In the face of the impact of the epidemic, the role of infrastructure investment in driving the economy is self-evident. The equipment manufacturing industry is the country's most important weapon and an important part of the country's real economy. In the second half of 2022, the sales volume of excavators will turn positive year-on-year, and it is expected to continue to achieve a small positive growth in 2023. From January to October 2022, the sales volume of the excavator industry was 220,797 units, a year-on-year decrease of 26%. Among them, the sales volume in October was 20,501 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, showing a relatively large rebound. In terms of domestic and overseas markets, the domestic market continued to improve marginally, and the decline narrowed to about 10% in October, mainly due to the base effect, the pull of domestic infrastructure projects, and the impact of the transition from China III to China IV emission standards. It is expected that the decline will further narrow in 2023 narrow. Overseas markets have maintained rapid growth. Domestic leading companies have already achieved product strength comparable to international giants. In addition to gaining a high market share in emerging countries such as Southeast Asia, the market share in developed countries in Europe and the United States has also continued to increase. It is expected to continue to grow in 2023.
In 2023, the sales volume of excavators in the industry is expected to achieve a small positive growth. Assuming that the sales volume of domestic excavators in 2022 is 156,000 units, and the sales volume of export excavators is 108,000 units, on this basis, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the sales volume of excavators in the industry in 2023. We expect the domestic market to continue to improve marginally, and the rate of decline is expected to be narrowed to less than 30%. The overseas market’s own prosperity has declined slightly, but domestic leading companies are expected to continue to increase their share by virtue of their own product strength and channel expansion. The growth rate is expected to be 20-30% %, the sales volume of excavators in the industry is expected to achieve a small positive growth in 2023, and leading companies will perform better.
Domestic replacement demand is still in a downward cycle, and the recovery with greater elasticity still needs to be reversed in the domestic market. Because there is no one-size-fits-all mandatory exit policy in China, the number of replacements for excavators in the future is calculated based on domestic historical demand. The service life of excavators is about 10 years. Assume that the replacement requirements for excavators in year T are T-9, T-10, T -11 The average number of three years, considering only the aging of the aircraft, the current domestic replacement demand is still in a downward period, but considering the impact of environmental protection policies, electrification technology iterations, downstream recovery drivers and other factors, it is expected to enter the upward cycle ahead of schedule . Editor/Xu Shengpeng
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