Over the past decade, the overseas market of the the Belt and Road has enjoyed a strong momentum of development, and the construction of various fields has yielded fruitful results, of which infrastructure construction is one of the key development fields. Recently, Xu Bin, head of Asian industry and deputy director of China Research Department of UBS Securities, said that the annual infrastructure expenditure of countries along the the Belt and Road may exceed $1 trillion, which is more optimistic about the development of the the Belt and Road in the next decade.

Xu Bin said that since the the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward ten years ago, it has presented many development highlights. By 2022, Chinese enterprises have invested a total of 398 billion yuan in the the Belt and Road cooperation field, creating 420000 local jobs. In 2022, the trade between China and countries along the the Belt and Road will account for 33% of China's total trade, while in 2013 it will only be 25%.

Xu Bin, Director of Industrial Industry in Asia and Deputy Director of China Research at UBS Securities

The World Bank predicts that by 2030, the joint construction of the the Belt and Road is expected to help 7.6 million people around the world shake off extreme poverty and 32 million people shake off moderate poverty, and will increase the trade of participating countries by 2.8% to 9.7% and global trade by 1.7% to 6.2%.

As for the development of the the Belt and Road Initiative in the next decade, Xu Bin said that according to the top-down analysis, the annual infrastructure expenditure of countries along the the Belt and Road may exceed $1 trillion. The potential annual infrastructure demand of countries along the the Belt and Road is about 30% of China's infrastructure expenditure in 2022. Under the optimistic scenario, if the proportion of infrastructure fixed assets investment in GDP of these countries is similar to that of China, the annual demand will reach $2 trillion.

The proportion of total debt to GDP of most countries along the Belt and Road is 2-3 times that of government revenue, which indicates that government revenue is insufficient to support investment in infrastructure projects. Xu Bin said that countries with low debt to income ratio and strong governance capacity are more capable of financing infrastructure projects, and China's policy banks and multilateral development banks play a key role in financing the the Belt and Road.

Xu Bin said that thanks to the the Belt and Road, China's export of capital goods has steadily increased in the past decade. With the advancement of import substitution, it is expected that Chinese capital goods will have sufficient competitiveness to gain more market share in the global market. China has been actively expanding its land transportation network. Through more convenient transportation, it will be more conducive to the future trade development of countries along the the Belt and Road.

When talking about which industries will benefit from the the Belt and Road, Xu Bin believes that Chinese contractors are active in the international market, and the strong export of construction machinery supports China's overseas construction capacity.

Data shows that 79 out of the top 250 international contractors in the world come from China, accounting for approximately 28% of all these contractors' total revenue in 2021. At the same time, Chinese construction companies hold a significant share in the international contracting market related to electricity, water supply, and transportation. In recent years, Chinese construction machinery OEM manufacturers have performed well in emerging markets, mainly due to their competitive costs, attractive prices, good quality, complete sales network, and excellent service. Xu Bin said.Editor/Ma Xue