The devaluation of the RMB combined with the strengthening of expectations of the "soft landing" of the US economy has triggered the market's attention to the export chain. This paper focuses on the export direction of industrial products, and the performance of relevant overseas leading companies is one of the evidences of the current overseas market boom. At the same time, supply and demand are analyzed according to the marginal changes of economic indicators at the investment end and the order end, so as to judge the sustainability of the overseas market, especially the North American market boom, and finally end up in China's construction machinery export. After three years of rapid growth in 2020-2022, export growth may slow down in the future under the background of a high base, we will discuss how the global development of domestic brands will be interpreted, and what key elements we should pay attention to in this investment direction.

The high prosperity of the North American market led to the growth of overseas construction machinery & aerial work platform leading revenue. From the financial performance of the world's leading construction machinery Caterpillar and Komatsu, in Q2 2023, the revenue of the two reached 17.318 billion US dollars and 6.595 billion US dollars, +21.56% and +17.94% year-on-year, and the main business revenue growth rate of the two North American regions was 33.6% and 28%, respectively, which is the main region contributing to the growth. Caterpillar has achieved 10 consecutive quarters of positive revenue growth, mainly due to the boom in terminal demand, sales increased; ② In the state of tight balance between supply and demand, the average price of products increases. From the perspective of the financial performance of North American leading aerial work platform Haoshike and Terex, in Q2 2023, the two aerial work platform businesses achieved revenue of 1.328 million US dollars and 825 million US dollars, respectively +36% and +38% year-on-year, and the order scale in hand was 4.4 billion and 2.668 billion US dollars, respectively +11% and -5% year-on-year. Since the beginning of 2021, the industry recovery and renewal demand have promoted the upswing of the high machine boom, and the current order size of the leading company has maintained a relatively high level, and still exceeds its own 2022 annual high machine revenue, and the delivery tension continues.

Infrastructure bill, manufacturing return and other policy incentives will support the continuation of the North American market boom. From the investment side, the growth rate of private non-residential construction expenditure in the United States has returned to positive in May 2021 and continued to accelerate to 28.5% in June 2022, and in the non-residential fixed investment in the United States, the investment in manufacturing construction has shown a more obvious acceleration trend, returning to positive in Q2 2021 and accelerating to 69.4% in Q2 2023. From the point of view of the order side, the new orders for machinery products in the United States and the scale of orders in hand have continued to expand since the first half of 2020, and the supply chain tension and demand recovery have caused the order backlog, with the peak growth rate reaching 27.7% and 22.3% in April 2021 and November 2021, respectively. Sub-industries take construction machinery as an example, the growth rate of new orders has basically remained positive since 2021, the inventory-to-shipment ratio is relatively stable, and the uncompleted orders and shipments have gradually declined since 2022, indicating that demand continues to improve, inventory levels are not high, and the supply tension is marginal. In summary, the recovery of overseas market demand began in early 2021, and the supply and demand relationship of equipment gradually shifted from supply tension to supply and demand balance, while the series of economic stimulus bills signed by the US government, or the main reason for the continued rise of investment growth, once again injected good momentum to the boom margin, which is expected to enhance the sustainability of the future North American market boom.

We believe that China's construction machinery exports have gradually entered the stage of comprehensive competitiveness strengthening from the rapid expansion of scale, and it is necessary to face the possible slowdown in export growth under the background of a high base. According to the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 2020-2022 is the rapid expansion period of China's construction machinery exports, reaching 44.302 billion US dollars, with a two-year CAGR of 45.3%, the "Belt and Road" region accounted for 42.8% in 2022, +32% year-on-year, and North America accounted for 12.5%, +33% year-on-year. From the perspective of Sany, Xugong, Zhonglian, Liugong overseas sales, the compound growth rate of 2020-2022 is about 61.0%, 113.5%, 61.5%, 55.0%, respectively, under the background of overseas demand recovery and supply chain tension, it has achieved rapid scale expansion, occupying a certain share of the "Belt and Road" market, and successfully entering the high-end market in Europe and the United States. However, China's construction machinery exports in 2023 May not fully reflect the North American market boom, the overall export from January to July was +20.1%, while North America was -0.26%. We judge:

From a long-term perspective, the focus of globalization development lies in expanding the high-end market in Europe and the United States, entering the stage of comprehensive competitiveness, and it is necessary to pay attention to continue to increase investment in products, channels and after-market services, improve the overseas recognition of domestic brands, and further accelerate the accumulation of power.

In the short term, perhaps high machinery, forklifts such as Europe and the United States developed market demand for higher varieties will benefit more from the North American market boom, taking forklifts as an example, in 2022 exports of 361,500 units, +14.5%, the American market accounted for about 30%, the growth rate is 24%.Editor/Xu Shengpeng